The Racing Flow™ Upgrades & Downgrades report is not a traditional selection sheet. It lists Plod Boy upgrades (runners whose recent speed figures probably don’t do them justice) and downgrades (runners whose speed figures may overstate what they've accomplished). You'll still need to handicap to determine whether the runner is properly placed today.
Expect 10-12 upgrades and 5-6 downgrades per race card. Reports are issued for Friday, Saturday and Sunday cards and currently include:
AQUEDUCT, GULFSTREAM and SANTA ANITA
We're confident we can steer you to the right runners and away from the wrong ones. Perhaps not every day, but over the long run.
Click on the link below for a sample of an Upgrades & Downgrades Report.
4 China Melissa (5-1): recorded soild 'neutral' win in her last following an upgraded effort vs an Extreme Race for Speed (CFR 3). Carries upgrade with her for first try in NW3L condition.
2nd by a nose at 5-1 Lost the head bob following stretch duel
-Plod Boy Phil 2/5/2012 11:56am ET
February 4, 2012
TURFWAY
Race 11
1 Infiltrate (3-1): third time starter enters this off back to back upgrades. The debut was against an Extreme Race for Speed (CFR 1) and the last was on the wrong side of a speed friendly CRF 9. Adds blinkers and drops for winning run.
3rd at 4-1
-Plod Boy Phil 2/4/2012 6:47am ET
February 3, 2012
TURFWAY
Race 1
4 Time to Getit (8-1): impressed in latest with wide closing run from the wrong side of an Extreme Race for Speed (CFR 3) - that winner went wire to wire. Takes slight drop in conditions sitting on a top effort.
3rd at 7/2
-Plod Boy Phil 2/3/2012 10:33am ET
February 2, 2012
GULFSTREAM
Race 8
10 Why Should I (12-1): made brief bid while wide when on the wrong side of an Extreme Race for Closers (CFR 99) – that winner’s BL12 was 12 lengths. Tries open maiden claimers and returns to the dirt from an outside draw that may prove beneficial for stalk and pounce trip.
Outrun at 16-1
SANTA ANITA
Race 6
9 Mama Janka (15-1): was a runaway pacesetter of a Extreme Race for Closers(CFR 99) when last seen in early December – that winner’s BL12 was more than 11. Turns back to a sprint and returns to the dirt.
3rd at 26-1 Will check Flow figures on Tuesday
-Plod Boy Phil, 2/1/2012, 6:50pm ET
February 1, 2012
Postings will resume on Thursday, Feb. 2nd
-Plod Boy Phil
'CFR' - Closer Favorability Ratio The new, easy to use figure from Racing Flow™
Just before New Years 2012, Racing Flow™ proudly introduced the new Closer Favorability Ratio, or CFR, which combines our Flow and Bias figures into a single number representing the relative ease of closing in a race. Handicappers no longer need analyze the importance of the Flow relative to the Bias, and vice versa - The Plod Boys have done it for you.
The CFR scale ranges from 1-100, with low CFRs representing races that had Bias and Flow dynamics favorable to Speed horses and high CFRs representing races that had Bias and Flow dynamics favorable to Closers. As a point of reference,
* Extreme Races for Speed (EXT/S): CFR values between 1-3
* Extreme Races for Closers (EXT/C): CFR values between 98-100
In general, focus on runners exiting races that fall within one of the following categories:
Closer favoring: CFR values 92-100
Speed favoring: CFR values 1-9
Handicappers may widen their ranges, though doing so even a couple of points greatly reduces the figure strength.
-Plod Boy Phil 1/18/2012
Foralltheglory ($46.00) - there for the taking
Handicappers that read the Gulfstream PDF posting from Thursday sometime before the 7th at Gulfstream on Friday should have noted that Foralltheglory ($46.00) was the 3rd speed upgrade exiting the 6th race at GP on Dec. 4.
Of course, the top two speeds from that event paired up for a $45 exacta yesterday while today's hero was turning back on the same course as his Zip aided Nw2L win a year ago. If today's pace was fair to advantageous, he had very good chance to finish best. The pair of works since the upgrade race were just gravy.
This no brainer for any Flow Player with the proverbial pulse. Seriously.
The Racing Flow™ enhanced DRF Formulator PPs are posted below, featuring the new CFR figure readily visible on the right side of each race under the company line. Flow and Formulator are a strong combination.
On the question regarding owner Rubin Sierra, I did find that the MLB Rubin Sierra was a .268 lifetime hitter. The question of whether or not this Mr. Sierra, thoroughbred owner could hit even one HR in MLB remains unanswered.
* note that Tastefully Smart, 2nd in the 9th, had the good fortune of being 'with the96 Closers CFR', or w96, from that same race on Dec 4th and was deserving of a downgrade.
Finding live races before they happen is an edge Flow Players enjoy. Non flow players that 'waited for the itallics' were rewarded with two missed scores and a failed 2-1 shot.
Didn't Take It (2nd at 25-1) in the 10th at Gulfstream on Friday, was the lone upgrade in the finale having made a 'Quick to' move vs a CFR 97, or Q97, last out at 8f on the main. There's no sense in overthinking speed upgrades at 25-1, especially if making a turf debut. No doubt a painful finish for anyone with the bookend upgrades Pick 4 live. The $0.50 P4 Will Pay was $15K. Those of us who's P4 tickets died in the middle were still looking at a possible $50 horse to end the day.......or not.
On the upside, handicappers should note the presence of a speed upgrade from this same 'near extreme' entered in the 2nd race tomorrow. The 9 Cabeus (10-1) cuts back to 6f on the dirt and deserves the upgrade. That said, the lightly raced colt really showed very little 'gate speed' last time and there is some cause for concern that he'll drop a little too far back early. While this dampens enthusiasm some, the outside draw may be fortuitous.
Scratched
Update: Cabeus returned on Saturday January 28th in the 11th at GP going two turns on the turf. He finished 3rd at 12-1 following a very unusual journey.
-Plod Boy Phil 1/20/12 6:10pm ET
Racing Flow™ 'Extreme Race' Upgrades to Watch
AQUEDUCT - Jan. 11
R1: My Man Marty - vs Extreme for Closers - 3rd at 4-1 on 1/29 R5: Call the Ball - vs Extreme for Closers
GULFSTREAM - Jan. 13
R10: Volcano Run - vs Extreme for Closers R10: Springcourt - vs Extreme for Closers R10: Le Grand Rouge - vs Extreme for Closers
FAIR GROUNDS - Jan. 11
R3: Adulare - vs Extreme for Closers
OAKLAWN - Jan. 16
R2: Malawi - won an Extreme Race for Closers wire to wire. Big win may set her up for a dud in next, but if I were a claiming trainer in Hot Springs, I'd consider taking this one before too long. Capable of having a very profitable spring with realistic placements. Modest speed upgrades to Sweet Clarice and This Time.
-Plod Boy Phil 01/17/12 9:25pm ET
10/12/2011
Racing Flow™ feature in HorsePlayer Magazine
The new edition of HorsePlayer Magazine (www.horseplayerdaily.com) is out and it features an in-depth article on the brains behind Racing Flow™ figures, R Jake Jacobs, otherwise known as Plod Boy Jake.
Many thanks to editor Frank Scatoni and author Peter Fornatale for their support. Check out the article, and Peter's Blog, at unbearablelightnessofbetting.
-plod boy phil
* The PDF version of the article is posted below. Please be patient, it will take a minute or so to open. The file is only 7 pages, not 7.02 MB.
