The Racing Flow™Graded Report is simply a list of horses deserving upgrades or downgrades Racing Flow™ figures. not a traditional selection sheet. It lists Plod Boy upgrades(runners whose recent speed figures probably don’t do them justice) anddowngrades (runners whose speed figures may overstate what they've accomplished). You'll still need to handicap to determine whether the runner is properly placed today.
Expect 10-12 upgrades and 5-6 downgrades per race card. Reports are issued for Friday, Saturday and Sunday cards and currently include:
Belmont, Kee / Churchill, and Hollywood.
We're confident we can steer you to the right runners and away from the wrong ones. Perhaps not every day, but over the long run.
Click on the link below for a sample of an Upgrades & Downgrades Report.
Despite being mired in an 0-13 streak - yeah, right! - steady as she goes Racing Flow™ subscribers have actually enjoyed a $2.49 ROI on just 3-22 shooting.
At ease.
April Bonus Grades
A collection of easy chalk winners and a handful of impossible 'otb' losers have yielded a high win rate of 43.8%, yet a modest $2.25 ROI.
-Plod Boy Phil
4/23/2012
PLOD BOY BONUS PLAYS
April 22, 2012
AQUEDUCT
Race 5
6 System Restore (6-1): recorded a solid vs Plod Winlast out when running through a Speed favoring CFR 9 race - his BL12 was more than 9 lengths. A lively pace scenario today will make this sharp gelding a serious repeat threat.
3rd at 12-1
Neutral CFR reduces this one to a neutral grade next out.
-Plod Boy Phil
4/22/2012
11:55am ET
April 21, 2012
CALDER
Race 5
7 Inagotable (4-1): upgrade the last behind the wire to wire winner of a a Speed favoring CFR 8. Two back finished a solid second under a neutral CFR. Three back was upgraded when on the wrong side of a Bias driven CFR 9 - that winner's BL12 was under 2. Pace scenario looks favorable today.
Scratched
-Plod Boy Phil
4/21/2012
10:18am ET
April 20, 2012
HAWTHORNE
Race 7
8 She's Gonna Float (5-1): will stretch out to two turns off a 'Quick to Zip'upgrade on the wrong side of an Extreme Race for Closers (CFR 98). Jock Felix must avoid this one running off early with blinkers on and a sizzling 4f work (Kee) in tow.
Off the board at 3-1
As feared, a very fast opening quarter had this one stopping to a walk in the lane. Beware a rapid return sprinting at Keeneland.
Racing Flow™ CFR = 100 - an Extreme Race for Closers.
Race 8
8 Deal of a Lifetime (15-1): turns back to a 6.5f sprint following an upgraded 'Quickto Zip'move into the teeth of a Closer's CFR 94race - that winner's BL12 was more than 27 lengths. Not only was the winner far back after 3/4's of a mile, the 2nd and 3rd place finishers were even further back.
Off the board at 45-1
Curious strategy.....will check figs on Tuesday.
The CFR for the race was an 88. 'Deal' will remain on my radar for one more race.
-Plod Boy Phil
4/19/2012
8:38pm ET
April 19, 2012
Back on Friday.
-PBP
Weekend Highlights
Saturday
Aqueduct produced 2 winners, My Redbyrd ($15.00) and Mutiny ($46.80). from a total of 10 upgrades spread out over 5 races.
Keeneland's card resulted in three graded winners of $10.20, $10.00 and $8.60. The last two combined for a $59.20 Daily Double.
Sunday
It was a day to forget at the Big A for us as we threw up an 0-8 upgrade day, including two more bold type failures. The last four bold types in NY have all been of the same ilk, the kind that carried the mail for us regularly during March. We can afford a number of 0-4 streaks. As you were.
The Plod Boys blew up the board in Keeneland's 6th when the two lone Racing Flow™ upgrades, Ridgster ($44.40) and Henry's Hurricane (2nd at 11-1) ran 1-2 to complete a $375 exacta. It may be worth noting that the exotic was a bit light..........
The race also marked the start of the Late P4, a sequence in which the GradedReport ticket looked like this:
6) 2, 4
7) all (no upgrades)
8) 3, 5
9) 1, 3
That ticket, a $20 investment, returned a whopping $1,203.90 !
Good times.
-Plod Boy Phil
4/16/2012
$203 Daily Double carries the day
for Flow Players
The 4rd race at Aqueduct on Friday featured bold upgrade Casa Tua (8/5) and one other upgrade, J C's Queen ($16.40). The two combined for a $57.50 exacta and kept us live to a lone upgrade in the 5th. That runner was Hook It Up ($18.20), who dominated the field despite lugging out in the lane. The Daily Double payoff on the 2 x 1 investment returned a whopping $203, roughly three times the ML projection.
* Two bold type runners failed in the 8th at AQ - each was off back to back single digit CFR upgrades, a very positive ROI play for us.
* Bold upgrades went 1 for 2 at Keeneland, with lone race grade Safe Crossing (5.60) destroying the 3rd race field.
-Plod Boy Phil
4/14/2012
When Bold Upgrades Go Bad
Wednesday's card at Keeneland featured the return of Racing Flow™ favorite HungryIsland (Race 7). This two time 'vs Plod Winner' at age 3, with 4 upgrades in her last 6 races, has every reason to be bigger and better this year.
Off at odds of 7/2, Hungry Island was widest of all the entire trip, including a visually impressive bid while 5-6 wide on the turn. Nothing else we can do but check the Flow figures on Tuesday.
We'll mark Hungry Island down as a bold upgrade failure knowing racing luck owes us one.
-PBP
4/11/2012
Elsaroarin ($26.60) opens weekend for
Racing Flow™ subscribers
Elsaroarin($26.60) rolled home from far back to win the 2nd at Aqueduct on Friday as a Plod Boy 'bold upgrade' in the race. When this one moved into a solo 4th at the 3/8th, the result was all but in the books. Long time Flow Players know that when vs Plod runners catch a closer's Flow, good thing happen.
The Racing Flow™ enhanced DRF Formulator PPs for this gem are below.
That's right readers. Another double digit bold upgrade from The Plod Boys of Racing Flow™. No surprise it was a turf race, is there?
The first Racing Flow™ bold upgrade of the 2012 Keeneland Spring Meeting cam from far back to win. As with our earlier success at Aqueduct, this closer was home and unsaddled at the 3/8's pole. No need to shout this one to the wire.
Did you think aboutpurchasing a Racing Flow™ Full Service subscription, then fail to do so ?
Stop thinking so much!
Or worse yet, did you put in a second or third inquiry for free Racing Flow™ products instead of making a purchase ?
The Racing Flow enhanced DRF Formulator PPs for this Plod Boy No Brainer are posted below. Note the three consecutive races on the wrong side of single digit CFRs, two of which were Extreme Races for Speed.
Some of you may recall that we made Take Charge Indy a bold upgrade in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. He failed that day at odds of 25-1, but flashed the talent we knew he had yesterday in the Florida Derby. While my first Derby Future book bet since Eddington in 2004 will likely make the race, a review of the Flow figures on Monday night may shed more light on his chances. It had the look of a speed favoring scenario......
Congrats to those that selected the winner in the Racing Flow™ Floriday DerbyContest. You have won two free weeks of Flow figures and 'Graded Reports'. Four percent of the entries had the four horse superfecta box (very nicely done), while 90% of you had Union Rags on top.
Eddington, my all time favorite, is the sire of the current Derby favorite Secret Circle.
-PBP
'CFR' - Closer Favorability Ratio The new, easy to use figure from Racing Flow™
Just before New Years 2012, Racing Flow™ proudly introduced the new Closer Favorability Ratio, or CFR, which combines our Flow and Bias figures into a single number representing the relative ease of closing in a race. Handicappers no longer need analyze the importance of the Flow relative to the Bias, and vice versa - The Plod Boys have done it for you.
The CFR scale ranges from 1-100, with low CFRs representing races that had Bias and Flow dynamics favorable to Speed horses and high CFRs representing races that had Bias and Flow dynamics favorable to Closers. As a point of reference,
* Extreme Races for Speed: CFR values between 1-3
* Extreme Races for Closers: CFR values between 98-100
In general, focus on runners exiting races that fall within one of the following categories:
Closer favoring: CFR values 92-100
Speed favoring: CFR values 1-9
Handicappers may widen their ranges, though upgrades based on a single effort outside of the guidelines will be less productive.
-Plod Boy Phil 1/18/2012
Flow Notes
* Sunday viewers of TrackFacts LIVE at www.capitalotb.com were provided with two upgrades on the Sunday cards.
The first was Shea Goodbye, a bold upgrade in the 8th at Aqueduct. Off at odds of 49-1, Shea made a big move into the teeth of an Extreme Race for Closers (CFR 99) before weakening late. Shea will remian a bold upgrade - we eagerly await her return. This event was marred by the breakdown of Mob Wife, the pace setter of this Zip.
The second upgrade was Jonny's Choice in the 3rd at Santa Anita, a mile race washed off the turf. Jonny will retain his standard upgrade status for his chasing effort behind the w-w winner of a modst CFR 13. Personally, I'm hoping the next is on the turf, but as always, I'll trust the trainer to make the right move.
* Failed mid-week bold upgrade Bent Missile (OP, 3/15, R5) will retain his bold upgrade status for his chase and steady fade behind the wire to wire winner of an ExtremeRace for Speed (CFR 2). Missile came intothe race off back to back big efforts against consecutive CFR 99races - certainly two taxing trips. Thursday, he was in the difficult role of chasing a strong leader from more than a length off the pace at the first call. Remember, it is imperative that the runner in question is more than a length of the early leader and that that leader goes wire to wire. Runners fading behind a Speed favoring CFR race in a race won by a horse from behind it is not an upgradeable effort.
* The winner of Gulfstream's 10th on Friday, Sir Sparky ($196.60), was the beneficiery of an Extreme Race for Closers (CFR 98). Take a look at the chart to upgrade runners on or near the lead, such as Gun Slingin Bully, Hanuman, and even the runner-up Winner's Secret for being much closer to the early pace than the winner. We'll downgrade all runners that closed or failed to close into this perfect closers scenario.
Good luck this week.
-Plod Boy Phil
3/20/2012
2:50pm ET
Anunciata ($88.40) completes $170 Daily Double
for Racing Flow™ susbcribers
That's right readers. Plod Boy Jake did it again on Sunday.
He upgraded the winner of Gulfstream's 5th, La Malandrina ($4.00), on the strength of her 'vs 99' effort last out and completed the back end of the 1 x 2 Daily Double play with Anunciata ($88.40). Take my word for it, brilliant analysis, this.
-pbp
3/18/2012
Arch Support ($64.10) Wins as bold upgrade
Racing Flow™ Full Service subscribers were again treated to a winning bold upgrade on the Saturday Upgrades & Downgrades Report. This one, Arch Support ($64.10), had exited the wrong side of three straight single digit CFR races. Following a 10 wk freshening, Arch took advantage of a dream trip to light up the tote in the 9th at Gulfstream.
-Plod Boy Phil
3/18/2012
Trend: The 'vs Plod Winner'
Racing Flow™ Full Service subscribers headed into the featured G3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream looking at a possible 880-1 return on a straight P3 payout if Trend improved as much as the Plod Boys thought he might.
The sequence began when lone upgrade Kitty Wine ($12.60) went wire to wire in the 8th despite an aggressive opening half mile. In the 9th, Trueno Jak ($7.00), again the lone upgrade in the race, completed the $70.80 Daily Double.
It was now up to Trend (25-1) to step up from his Alw1x win and defeat proven graded stakes runners. To those looking at final time based speed figures, Trend was clearly 'too slow'. To users of Racing Flow™ figures, his win was very impressive, as he had run through an Extreme Race for Speed (CFR 2) to win going away. Those of us that have been following these impressive 'vs Plod Winners' for years know that this kind of winner has the right to make a huge forward move, often at an equally huge overlay.
As it turned out, Trend pressed and eventually put away the downgraded even money favorite and three time graded stake winner Little Mike, but could not hold off the two time graded stake winner Doubles Partner. While we were denied our big pay-off today, The Plod Boys look forward to a long year of turf action and a chance to cash similarly live last out winners.
The Racing Flow™ figures are best on the turf and specifically at turf routes. If you enjoy grass racing, and you are a real horseplayer that understands investing in quality information used by a small percentage of players gives you an edge, then a full service subscription is probably for you. If you are not a DRF Formulator user, the Upgrades & Downgrades Report will point you in the right direction. From there, simply use the PDF files to investigate further. If you are a DRF Formulator user, then PPs like the ones for Trend simply jump off the page. In addition, as a subscriber, your quesions on any horse or race are always answered promptly. As always, direct questions to phil@racingflow.com
The new edition of HorsePlayer Magazine (www.horseplayerdaily.com) is out and it features an in-depth article on the brains behind Racing Flow™ figures, R Jake Jacobs, otherwise known as Plod Boy Jake.
Many thanks to editor Frank Scatoni and author Peter Fornatale for their support. Check out the article, and Peter's Blog, at unbearablelightnessofbetting.
-plod boy phil
* The PDF version of the article is posted below. Please be patient, it will take a minute or so to open. The file is only 7 pages, not 7.02 MB.
